release: v0.4.0

[zebraengine]

Problem

PyPI serves 0.3.0 while main carries three merged changes to the degradation watch and thermal fitter that a fresh install should have from its first charge: the identifiability gate with the default-τ floor (#21), the self-calibrating drift threshold (#22), and the prior-deviation notice (#23). Without a release, uvx wallmonitor still ships the fixed 2.5 °C tripwire that fired on scatter.

Code touched

pyproject.toml — version 0.3.0 → 0.4.0. uv.lock — refreshed to match (the 0.3.0 bump left it at 0.2.0-era metadata; harmless for consumers, but the lock should agree with the manifest). Nothing else; the release content is what already merged:

• fix: drift watch — gate truncated fits, buzz the phone only for confirmed drift #21 — fits require a steady window ≥ 1.8 × max(install τ, 12 min); window sized by τ with a widen-and-refit pass; drift push priority follows confidence.
• feat: drift alert self-calibrates to the install's own scatter #22 — the drift alert needs a confidence interval clearing zero and Δ ≥ 2.5 °C; "lead" state for past-the-floor-but-unconfirmed; threshold_c reports the effective, scatter-derived threshold.
• feat: say on the dashboard when an install's fit lands far from the priors #23 — dashboard model note says when an install's fitted τ/rise land >30% from the built-in priors.

Risk

Minor bump is warranted: behaviour of an existing alert changes (fewer thermal_drift alert rows, new thermal_drift_lead event kind) and /api/thermal gains fields (lead, floor_c, model.prior_deviation) — additive, but a webhook consumer keyed on thermal_drift sees fewer of them. No schema migration. Existing installs see up to a few fits dropped from history on first read (windows under the gate); the model medians move by well under 1 °C on the reference install.

Verification

113/113 on main; each included PR carried its own verification, including read-only replays against a production database. Tag push triggers the trusted-publishing workflow; after publish: uvx --from wallmonitor==0.4.0 wallmonitor --help and the PyPI JSON.

Deploy: tag v0.4.0 on the merge commit after merge; the GitHub Release will be created published, not draft, this time. The mini PC runs from a git checkout and needs git pull + a service restart regardless of the PyPI release.